Thursday, February 7, 2008

Romney is out and Huckabee is IN!

With today’s announcement from Gov. Romney that he is suspending his campaign, many people are now saying that Sen. McCain has the nomination. In the words of ESPN’s Lee Corso, “Not so fast, my friends!” Gov. Huckabee is still very much in this race and here is how.

Currently, McCain is estimated to have around 720 delegates. That means in order to secure the nomination and prevent a brokered convention, he has to win 471 more delegates from the states remaining in the primary. However, there are only 963 delegates left. That means that in order to win the nomination, Sen. McCain would have to win 48.9% of the remaining delegates.
Gov. Huckabee’s path to the White House is now clear. Win 493 delegates (51.2%) in the remaining states. If he can do this, he can send this to the Republican National Convention and there he stands a much better chance of winning over the Republican establishment who do not like the idea of nominating John McCain.


Jennifer said...

But look at the states coming up: On Saturday, Louisiana, Kansas, Nebraska and Washington state hold their contests and Tuesday includes Maryland, Virginia and the District of Columbia. I'm pretty sure that Huckabee can win Louisiana and Virginia and maybe even Kansas and Nebraska, but those are long-shots. I would be really suprised if he won Maryland or D.C. What's coming up after that? Mississippi is probably a sure thing, as is North Carolina, but beyond that he will have a hard time. I like your optimism, though!

Jason Tolbert, CPA said...

The important states in this is Virginia and Maryland which have 63and 37 delegates respectfully and is winner take all, meaning these two state could swing either one by 104 delegates. Kansas is a caucus so its delegates might be split up but Huckabee should do well. Louisiana is a mixed bag but 20 delegates could be decided in someone gets 50% on Satuary with the rest decided at thier convention later this month. Washington elects state delegates to its state convention held later this month as well. I beleive both convention are propotional (ie. not like West Virginia.)
Nebraska is not until May with its Convention in July.

In sum, Huckabee needs to win Virginia and probably Maryland as well as have at least a strong showing in Kansas and Louisiana. Then the battle moves to the winner take all states of Texas with 140 delegates and Ohio (by congressional district) with 88.